A prominent New Zealand businessman’s regular reports on the global economy.

by The REJIGIT Blog

John Ryder, M.Com (Hons); CA; CMA, is a well known New Zealand Company Director, Investment Analyst, Property Investor and Writer etc. He is the author of “Global Investing: A Guide for New Zealanders”, published in 2016 by David Bateman Ltd (ISBN : 9781869539375).

He was one of the two founding directors of Ryman Healthcare Ltd and his present numerous company directorships include Executive Chairman of Qestral Corporation Ltd, Chairman of NZ King Salmon Ltd and Director of Tuatara Tours NZ Ltd.

Mini Global is reproduced verbatim and with the consent of the author and will be updated by Rejigit as further Mini Global reports become available.

For further information about Mini Global, go to https://www.globalnews.co.nz/

22nd October, 2020

Many governments assume that there's a trade-off between preventing the pandemic and protecting the economy from damage: that is, do more of one and it comes at the expense of the other. However, slapping on restrictions can actually protect the economy from some harm.

The United States (population 328 million) has more than 8.1 million confirmed coronavirus cases and more than 219,000 deaths – the most in the world. China (population 1.4 billion) has had fewer than 91,000 confirmed cases and 4700 confirmed deaths.

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on mortality in the US could be underestimated by about one-third, according to new research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and may understate effects on younger adults and Hispanic or Latino people.

A rare case of a person being re-infected has been confirmed in Melbourne.

An Indian government panel of experts says the country’s rampant coronavirus pandemic may have peaked and could be under control by February. But independent analysts are sceptical that the worst is over in a country that has reported more new coronavirus infections than any other nation since the middle of August.

UK researchers plan to start infecting healthy volunteers with tightly controlled doses of the coronavirus in early 2021 in what they called a first-of-its-kind effort to more rapidly gauge the effectiveness of multiple vaccines against Covid-19.

Vietnam had all the ingredients for a Covid-19 disaster. It has a 1,300km (800-mile) border with China, with lots of informal trade via secret mountain trails, and an under-developed healthcare system. So, beyond contact-tracing, why has Vietnam been so good at dealing with the pandemic?

The European Union attracted the highest demand ever for a bond sale on Tuesday at over 233 billion euros, bankers involved in the deal said, as it kicked off fund raising for its SURE unemployment scheme. Demand was nearly 14 times the 17 billion euros the EU raised from the issue, comprising 10 and 20-year social bonds, bankers said.

The prospect of US lawmakers producing another big stimulus package before the election has tantalised investors for months. But there are good reasons to think additional relief won't arrive anytime soon.

Chinese officials said that gross domestic product expanded by 4.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, putting China’s economy back toward its pre-coronavirus trajectory half a year after the Europe’s economy is sliding towards a double-dip recession, with economists warning that rising coronavirus infections and fresh government restrictions on people’s movement are likely to cut short the region’s recent recovery.

Investors are disregarding Boris Johnson’s warning that the UK is willing to walk away from trade talks with the EU, responding to the latest breakdown in talks by buying the pound.

Shares on Wall Street climbed on Tuesday on growing optimism that talks among US lawmakers are progressing with respect to a US stimulus package aimed at cushioning the economic shock from the coronavirus pandemic.

In Europe, equities struggled for traction on Tuesday as anxiety grew about the economic cost of the pandemic.

Investors are once again chasing upside in shares of tech companies after a sharp sell-off in US equities last month.

As Marty Zweig famously said more than 35 years ago, "Don't fight the Fed." But when we consider sentiment as the way investors feel about the market, it's showing more apathy than enthusiasm.

Donald Trump has lashed out at Republicans for disloyalty, warning the party needs to stick together in the same way Democrats have unified around Joe Biden.

Donald Trump also lashed out at Anthony Fauci, a top White House coronavirus task force member, calling him a “disaster” as the US president attempted to deflect attention from his handling of the pandemic with just two weeks until the election.

Aluminum prices are hovering around 18-month highs as investors bet strong Chinese buying and improving industrial demand will see the metal catch up with its base-metal peers.

Copper, the most actively traded and commonly referenced industrial metal, has also surged lately.

OPEC and allied producers on Monday pledged action to support the oil market as concerns mounted that a second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic will hobble demand and an earlier plan to raise output from next year would further depress prices.

For the last four elections in a row, the number of NZ residential properties sold in the three-month period after the election has increased when compared with the same period prior to the election, according to analysis by REINZ.

According to The Economist, real house prices in New Zealand increased by 453 per cent from 1980-2016, far surpassing even the dramatic rises seen in Australia and Britain and leading to a dramatic wealth divide between those who own real estate and those who do not.

It is what it is.

Take care out there.

Kind regards,

John Ryder and Devon Ashby