Update 08 October 2023
More smoke and mirrors bollocks from the N.Z. National Party.
The headline read; "Families in line for $250 a fortnight under National's tax cuts".
The reality is; The $250 per fortnight comprises a $25.00 per week tax cut for some eligible middle income earners with children doubled into a couples scenario, the $25.00 per week doubled into a per fortnight scenario and the $250.00 per fortnight includes an already announced child-care subsidy.
It has now been established that in fact a maximum of only three thousand households nation-wide (out of a total of 1.6 million New Zealand households) will be eligible for the maximum theoretical tax rebate of $250 per fortnight.
16 September 2023
It has become apparent that the N.Z. National Party is attempting to gaslight its way through their current election campaign and it is a bloody insult to the intelligence of the wider electorate.
It has pledged that if elected, it would remove the current restriction on foreigners purchasing real estate in New Zealand. It would also introduce tax cuts benefiting middle income earners and which would be fully funded by a new foreign house buyer’s 15% tax on properties purchased for a minimum of $2m.
In the event there is a shortfall in the said projected foreign buyer's tax income, it would require additional government borrowing or cut-backs in pre-existing government spending.
An independent group of economists are so concerned about glaringly obvious blunders in the National Party’s foreign buyer's tax revenue forecasting they have carried out their own expert analysis.
The group comprises Nick Goodall; Head of Research at CoreLogic NZ, a property information, analytics and services provider, Michael Reddell; An independent economics commentator (former Special Economics Advisor at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, former Special Macroeconomics Advisor at New Zealand Treasury, former Alternative Executive Director at the International Monetary Fund) and Sam Warburton; Former economist and research fellow with The New Zealand Initiative.
A brief summary of their findings:
"Our best estimate is that National’s Foreign Buyer Tax would raise $210 million per year, compared to National’s estimate of $740 million. This leaves a significant $530 million (71%) per year gap in the costing of the Foreign Buyer Tax and the wider Back Pocket Boost policy. Our higher-end estimate is revenue of $290 million per year, with a shortfall of $450 million (61%) per year."
National’s foreign buyer’s house tax numbers:
$739.5 million average per year ($2,959 million over four years
1,700 house sales average per year
$2.9 million house price average per year
Shamubeel Eaqub, Wellington based economist commented on Newshub Nation television recently “The National Party's revenue estimates on its newly proposed foreign buyers tax are Bullshit”.
The National Party has surreptitiously referred to a review of some sort by Castalia an International strategy consultancy but even under intense media pressure, National has refused to disclose any modelling data. Such behaviour looks very dodgy!
Aside from the numbers cock-up, National’s foreign house buyers tax proposal appears to have no regard for the numerous Free Trade Agreements New Zealand has entered into and which do not allow discriminatory measures such as those proposed against the citizens of the respective Free Trade Agreement partners.